Is Israel Now The Last Hope To Stop A Nuclear Iran?

The Obama Administration announced their decision in the past days to join the current multi-party nuclear talks with Iran. The move by the administration came as no surprise to either the public, nor the press as President Obama had made his intentions clear during the campaign. However, a letter sent to the President by Democratic congressional leadership did come as a surprise to both the administration and press. Democratic leadership urged the President to act swiftly in any potential talks with Iran and to not allow the Iranians to continue their efforts to stall talks and international action. The letter, which was necessary but unexpected, urged the President to "not take too long" with peace talks before moving onto to push for toughened international sanctions and international action. A widespread consensus has been reached that a the US presence within the multi-national talks will not likely produce results as Iran has continued it's defiance against international law and has continued its nuclear program in violation of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty and numerous other treaties the nation agreed too.

Whether the letter by congressional Democrats was a sincere gesture or just an attempt to protect leadership against failure of the Obama policy is unknown, and most likely a combination of the two. Regardless, this letter should provide the Obama administration with a reminder that time in peacefully dealing with Iran is rapidly expiring and a nuclear Iran is not an option that many Mideast countries are willing to accept. The international community is in disagreement as to how far along the Iranian nuclear program is, but intelligence community is fearful that a new US presence within the international nuclear talks will set back or even restart efforts to disarm the Iranian nuclear program and result in delaying progress towards further international sanctions. The intelligence community has also expressed fears that a late US presence within the talks may also hinder the United States' ability to take pre-emptive action (i.e. air strike) against Iranian facilities without consent of the member nations. As a result, many are now rightfully wondering, is Israel the last best hope to stopping a nuclear Iran.

In 2002, Iranian dissident groups working along-side Israeli intelligence shocked the international community when they presented evidence of an advanced and unknown Iranian nuclear program. Since that date, Israeli and other intelligence officials have located and identified numerous nuclear facilities throughout Iran and the IAEA has found trace evidence of nuclear material only used within weapons programs. In the seven years since the Iranian Program was forced into the public eye, international efforts and sanctions have failed to produce any results.

In response to the Obama administrations announcement of their new diplomatic engagement with Iran, Israeli President, Shimon Peres, stated on Israeli radio that if President Obama's new dialogue failed to soften Ahmadinejad, "we'll strike him". The interview with Peres, highlights the reality that many defense officials believe that the Obama administration is operating under the assumption that if they fail, the Israeli's will clean up the mess. However, the intelligence community has long feared that unlike the previous Iraqi and Syrian facilities destroyed by Israel, much of the Iranian nuclear program is scattered and operating in underground facilities. Likewise, any Israeli operation would require that the Israelis utilize or violate the air space of multiple nations in an attempt to destroy any Iranian facility. As a result, the intelligence community along with most defense experts agree that an Israeli air strike would only work if it were part of a joint exercise with the United States, which may be unlikely considering the United States' 9th inning entry into diplomatic negotiations with Iran.

The fact remains, that although the Obama administration and the international community should pursue diplomatic avenues; but, the administration should learn from history that these avenues have produced few results. As a result, we can only hope that the Obama administration has a solid timeline in place and is not willing to allow Iran to further delay international action. In the past 30 years, the only nation to voluntarily abandon it's nuclear program was Libya, not as a result of years of negotiation, but rather the result of a fear of U.S. action following the invasion of Iraq. Nuclear Abandonment negotiations have repeatedly failed, even with nations such as Pakistan and India, who have strong diplomatic relationships with the U.S.

So the question now is simple: Has this move by the Obama administration pushed back international action against Iran? And, is Israel the last best hope to stop a nuclear Iran?