Obama Donor Base Shrivels, Campaign Blows $35 Million, Obama Bloggers Reporting False Numbers

This morning the papers were overloaded with positive stories proclaiming that Barack Obama was back on his A-Game and raising money like there was no tomorrow. Unfortunately the MSM once again failed to look at the actual numbers that should be of concern for the Obama campaign.

It is true that the Obama campaign did raise $52 million in June, along with DNC fundraising that added another $22 million to their coffers. That's a total haul of $74 million for the Democrat party in the month of June. But Obama, whose campaign has been so proud to taught his 1.5 million donors during the months of February, March & April, changed it's tone in yesterday's campaign release. In yesterday's release, David Plouffe stated, "Hundreds of thousands of ordinary people contributed...". Naturally, I pulled out the calculator only to grin at the reality that Obama, while raising a record $52 million, saw his donor base cut in half in June. That's right, just 764,000 donors compared to the 1.5 million who donated to his campaign in April.

The Obama campaign and it's surrogates had proudly projected that Obama would raise $100 million in June and a total of $250 - $300 million prior to the election. But the media failed to focus on the fact that Obama's total was only half of what they projected, primarily due to his shrinking donor base. Interest in the Obama campaign is also shriveling up online, where Obama's website which once ranked near the top 500 according to Alexa Web Tracking, has seen a consistent downward trend in visits since reaching it's pinnacle in early March. Today, Obama's website ranking has dropped to it's lowest level since the first of the year, and ranks around 3,000. The campaign website trend may also be disturbing considering the consistency within McCain's site visits and an upward trend since the beginning of June.

More disturbing for the campaign is the the cash on hand scenario. The McCain campaign and RNC currently have just shy of $100 million in the bank to take their fight forward. Meanwhile the Obama campaign announced yesterday that the campaign and DNC had a total closer to $72 million. This number is troubling for many in the Obama campaign, considering that just one month ago the two groups reported over $35 million of cash on hand. Considering that the DNC and Obama campaign raised $74 Million in June and that the DNC only spent $2 million; that would mean that the Obama campaign burned thru $35 million during the month of June. An astonishing amount considering that the Summer months are typically the doldrums of the campaign season. Even more disconcerting are the polls that continue to show the Obama has failed to increase his support, with his favorability ratings dropping and unfavorable rising.

For their part, Obama bloggers, including Huffpo, Politico, and TPM are reporting false numbers this morning, spreading stories that the DNC and Obama campaign have $92 million in the bank. Their reports are fueled by an LA Times story that simply failed to do any fact-checking. The Obama campaign press release yesterday specifically reported that the combined total cash on hand was $72 million.

One additional aspect of Obama's fundraising numbers is the Hillary effect. Since suspending her campaign in early June, Clinton has participated in several fundraisers and publicly pushed her largest contributors to donate to Obama's campaign. Following one recent fundraising event with Clinton, the Obama campaign reported that they had raised $5 million during the private event. Considering that many, but not all, of Clinton's donors have made contributions to Obama's campaign it's pretty safe to assume that 15%-30% of his fundraising total were derived directly from former Clinton supporters.

Further concerns may surface for the Obama campaign considering that many of the 130,000 donors who funded 60% of his primary campaign have already maxed out their general election contribution. Recent contribution requests reflect this growing desperation for new cash. The Obama campaign once proudly asked for a $5 contribution in their fundraising efforts; today, the campaign has increased their requests to $25.

There is an increasing consensus that Obama will have too dramatically outspend John McCain in order to win the general election; but the question remains, how much will they have to spend? It is unimaginable that the Obama campaign burned through $35 million dollars in the month of June and the best they could do was to 'barely hold on'. Last fall, the DNC requested that donors contribute to individual campaigns rather than the 'move on' type 527's that played such an important role during the last presidential cycle. As a result, DNC cash on hand and 527 groups are lagging far behind the RNC and Republican 527's. If Obama hopes to maintain his efforts to 'buy an election' he is going to have to find a way to reach back out to the small donors to fund his campaign. This may prove more elusive than ever considering that middle class and lower class citizens are being hammered by increasing inflation, record gas prices, and an impending high cost to heat their homes this fall. Perhaps Obama should consider using his new influence to push congress to bring the "The Gas Price Reduction Bill" to a vote and send a message that he actually cares about the middle and lower classes.

J Brown
July 18th, 2007
Please be sure to vote on this article at Real Clear Politics

Please Be Sure To Join Our: Drill Now Congressional Email Initiative

Democrats & Independents Please Be Sure To Join Our: 'Last Stand' Stop Obama Email Initiative