NBC/WaPo Pollsters Are 'Cooking The Books'

On Wednesday NBC & Washington Post released their poll results showing that Barack Obama had a 6 point lead over John McCain. The results are in line with other polling data released by the large media outlets. As a result I can accept the overall polling numbers. But, as you look into the poll, you begin to wonder if NBC pollsters are properly disclosing the questions they ask and how they extrapolate their data. Portions of the polling numbers are contradictory and borderline nonsensical.

In a 2 way race, NBC reports that Barack Obama earns 47% of the vote, with McCain earning 41% and 12% of registered voters remaining undecided. NBC claims that these results were based upon a simple question asking which candidate respondents would vote for. But where the polling data becomes perplexing is when NBC asks the question of who respondents would vote for in a four-way race between Obama, McCain, Barr, & Nader. According to NBC pollsters Obama would earn 48% of vote, John McCain earns 35%, Bob Barr gets 2% with Ralph Nader topping 5% of the votes. Additionally, the results reflect 10% of voters as undecided. Now, Reread this paragraph and if you don't recognize the screwiness of the results, read it again.

According to NBC pollsters, in a 4 way race Bob Barr, a libertarian would earn 2% of the vote. Honestly, this number is fair and it makes complete sense that the votes that Barr would earn would be shaved off the totals of John McCain. After all, Barr ran under the Republican banner for years before making his decision to switch affiliations to the Libertarian Party.

On the other hand, according to NBC pollsters, over 10% of those voting for McCain would vote for Ralph Nader if his name were on the ballot. Nader is too the left of Liberal in his views and his candidacy is built upon an anti-business, highly socialized platform. Many Democrats have blamed Nader's 2000 Presidential Run as the reason for an Al Gore's general election loss, and every pundit and political analyst will tell you that Nader's name on the ballot will hurt Obama. Yet, according to NBC pollsters, Nader's support magically comes from those supporting John McCain in a general election; a candidate who is a national security hawk and supports the expansion of domestic oil production. Two policies that Ralph Nader supporters hold dear and staunchly oppose.

I will admit that there is likely some Democrats that have such a mistrust of Obama that they would vote for McCain in a two-way race; but the notion that more than 10% of McCain's supporters would drop off the books and vote for Ralph Nader is nonsensical and ridiculous at best.

The most disturbing number in the poll, however, is Obama's magically rising number. Perhaps someone could explain to me how it is that, not only does Obama lose no support in a race with Nader's name on the ballot, but how it is that his polling number increases to 48%? That's right, in the course of a few minutes, John McCains supporters told NBC pollsters that they would prefer to vote for Nader and apparently no less than 5 respondents changed from undecided to Obama. Hmm... So let me get this straight:

NBC Poll Scenario #1:

Obama or McCain? Not Sure who I'd vote for.

But what if Nader & Barr were on the ticket? Well then there's no doubt, I'm voting Obama!

NBC Poll Scenario #2:

Obama or McCain? Definitely McCain!

But what if Nader & Barr were on the ticket? Well then there's no doubt, I'm voting Nader!

Sorry, but am I the only one who sees a problem in these results? Have NBC Pollsters been sipping the Kool-Aid? The NBC poll suggests that in a four-way race Obama enjoys a 13 point lead, which begs to question whether we should now consider NBC/WaPo polls as outliers?

There is an explanation as to NBC's outrageous numbers: They are "Cooking the Books". According to NBC, the 4-way race question was only asked of half of the approximately 1,000 participants. But who were these respondents and how did NBC determine who was to be asked the question? Considering that just prior to this question, NBC asked participants about excitement levels, it's pretty safe to assume that their pollsters tended to ask the 4-way race question to a disproportionate number of respondents who claimed they were extremely excited about voting for Obama and not excited about voting for McCain (therby increasing Obama's numbers and decreasing McCain's). In other words, pollsters asked questions that would allow them to pick and choose respondents that would produce the results they were seeking. As a result, we get these ridiculous polling numbers that suggest that 10% of McCain supporters would vote for Nader if given the chance and 1% of undecided voters magically made a decision over the course of 2 minutes.

J Brown
July 24th, 2008
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