The Impending Democratic Implosion

SuperDelegate Update:
New Supers Supporting Obama Despite Constituents Voting For Clinton
Dennis Cardoza - California
Jim Costa – California
Full List Below

Will Saturday mark the start of a healing process for the Democratic Party or will it only fuel the expanding fracture within the party?

My guess is the latter. Let’s face it, the DNC has done everything they could in recent months to garner public support for their anointed nominee and now they are paying the price. The DNC has made it clear that the issue of Florida and Michigan has everything to do with the rules, and little to do with the people. It is unlikely that any decision made by the DNC outside of a full delagatory seating will reverse the damage in those states.

So What Will The DNC Decision Be?

Most likely, the panel will award ½ of the delegates from these states, additionally awarding Obama up to 45% of Michigan’s Delegates. DNC paid lawyers sent out a memo Tuesday night lending credence to this solution. In addition, the DNC & the Obama Campaign are doing everything they can to attempt to prevent protests outside of the meeting on Saturday. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said today he is not encouraging people to "gather and protest on Saturday… we don't need an unhelpful scene here at the end".

Perhaps I am foolish in my belief that American’s have the right to gather and peacefully protest. Perhaps I am foolish to believe that we not only have a right, but the obligation, to question our national leaders.

“The End”????
Speaking to reporters yesterday Obama speaking of the upcoming DNC resolution stated this would “put the Michigan/Florida issue behind us. At that point all the information will be in…There will be no more questions unanswered. I suspect that whatever remaining super delegates will be able to make their decisions quickly after that."

The DNC is still tied to the belief that Clinton Supporters will coalesce around Obama, leading to that foreseen landslide victory in November. Thus, the message from the Democratic Party is clear to Clinton Supporters – SIT DOWN, SHUT UP, AND UNITE.

But has the DNC lit the fuse of their own implosion?

Presidential Race:
In a year that political pundits across the board anticipated the Democrats cruising to executive branch victory, the most recent national polls show John McCain ahead of Obama by 1 to 5 points (Rasmussen Data released yesterday gives McCain 5 point advantage). The Obama campaign continues to propagate that a McCain presidency would be a third Bush term, but the argument may not work out like the DNC and Obama campaign expected. Just 2 weeks ago, Obama led most national polls by up to an 11 point margin. What changed? McCain went after Obama on Foreign Policy - an issue that Democrats theoretically would have an advantage on. The best indication of Obama’s weakness on Foreign Policy came yesterday when the campaign shifted focus onto education reform. Although this may ease the bleeding, Obama will not be able to avoid the issue for long.

Obama has justified his electability by pointing to his high polling numbers in states such as Colorado and Iowa, Red States in the last election that are now in play. However, the DNC and Obama don’t seem to want to discuss some of the traditional “Blue States” where Obama is struggling.

California – Obama’s Once 27 point lead in the state has withered to just 7 points over the past month, strengthening Republican hopes for carrying the state for the first time in twenty years. Fueling concerns is the widespread unpopularity of Democratic Congressional Members (Super delegates) from the state throwing their support to the Obama camp despite the will of their voters.

Wisconsin – Obama’s once 11 point lead has reverted to a 4 point advantage by McCain.

Michigan – Obama once enjoyed an 8 point lead in the Blue State, but today McCain leads polls by 4 points.

New Hampshire – A state John Kerry carried, but also has been friendly with McCain.

Pennsylvania – A state the Obama camp must carry but has consistently flopped back and forth.

Ohio – Another crucial state where 2 of 3 major polls show McCain with a 1-4point lead.

Wild Cards – Illinois – Almost every political pundit will tell you Illinois, because of Chicago, is a blue state; but this political landscape in Illinois may not necessarily favor the Senator come November. Remember, although both Gore & Kerry won Illinois, their victory was driven by the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Not a day goes by when the Rezko trial and other corrupt ties to Obama are not mentioned in the press. Additionally, the state is troubled by growing dissent toward the Democratic Governor; over 75% of Illinoisans polled would support a recall election, if it were allowed. Come November the states Republican Party will be pushing for the approval of a constitutional convention vote on the ballot which could drive larger turnouts in downstate Illinois.

Considering that the media has kinged Obama as the champion of the Democratic primary race, this does not bode well. In addition, a more disturbing trend has developed in the democratic electorate, whereas record numbers of voters continue to show up at primaries the media and DNC have essentially branded meaningless.

Obama has talked eloquently on the campaign trail of hope & change, pointing out problems and telling you who’s to blame. This game may have worked well in the primary, but the General Election is going to highlight Obama’s clear lack of solutions.

DNC leadership has blamed Clinton for tarnishing the “messianic” image of Obama and damaging his electability. The truth is Clinton has tarnished Obama’s appearance and rightfully so. Obama is going to have an awakening if he does obtain the nomination; the fight has only just begun. There is no love lost between far-right conservative Groups & 527’s. As a result they sat on the sidelines for the past months, unwilling to attack or help either Clinton or Obama. But come this summer, they are going to throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at Obama. The Obama Campaign apparent believes that they can dictate what can and cannot be discussed in the General Election and that beyond the nomination the path is clear. The truth is the fight has just begun.

The primary season the Democratic Leadership has shown the American people that:

The vote of a Democrat in Youngstown is not equal to the vote of a Democrat in Cleveland.

The vote of a Democrat in Springfield is not equal to the vote of a Democrat in Chicago.

The vote of a Democrat in Scranton or Pittsburgh is not equal to the vote of a Democrat in Philadelphia.

The vote of a Democrat in Florida or Michigan is not equal to the vote of a Democrat in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.

The Obama campaign, DNC, and Democratic Congressional Members have become so infatuated with “the good of the Party” that they have been derelict in their most important duties: Representing the will of their constituents and the “good of the nation”. The DNC has lit the fuse to their own implosion; the only question left is: Will Clinton Supporters fan the flame or let it diminish along with their values, beliefs, and voices?

Click Here For a Listing of More Derelict Superdelegates

Click Here For "The New American Disenfranchisement"

J Brown
May 29th, 2008
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